The second debate in the US presidential Election took place on Sunday the 9th of October between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. A Poll released on Tuesday showed Democratic Presidential candidate; Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump, her opponent and the nominee of the Republican Party, by 11 percent. The Atlantic and PRRI released the results of this poll on Tuesday. Another poll released a day earlier, by the Wall Street Journal and NBC had Clinton leading by 14 percent. While these numbers are causing worry in the Trump campaign, the difference of 3 points between the polls numbers is also arousing curiosity.
In order to understand the accuracy of the Polls it is pivotal to look at the dates on which the polls were conducted rather than the ones on which their results were made Public.
The poll by the PRRI and Atlantic was conducted via telephone interviews from 5-9 October while, the Wall Street Journal and NBC poll was conducted on the 8th and 9th of October. These dates are significant because, a recording of Trump claiming he could grab women by their groin and get away with it as he was famous was released on the 8th of October. Keeping these dates in mind it can be inferred that a bigger portion of the interviews were conducted after the release of the Trump recording, in the WSJ/NBC poll compared to the PRRI and Atlantic poll. Thus the WSJ/NBC poll would provide a better reflection of the impact the scandal had on Trump’s chances of winning. It would also make it a more accurate indicator of Clinton’s place in the election.
The question going forward would be how long will Clinton’s lead remain. Will it be a temporary victory or could this be the moment when Clinton’s lead becomes permanent in this election cycle. To know the answer to that, a closer analysis of the subsequent polls will be required.